evaluationinnovation

Developmental Evaluation is not for you

Developmental evaluation is a powerful tool to support innovation, engaging communities, and foster deep learning. While it might be growing in popularity, increasingly in demand, and a key difference-maker for social and technological innovators it might also not be for you.

Developmental evaluation (DE) is an approach to evaluation that is designed to support innovation and gather data to make sense of things in a complex environment. It is a powerful tool full of promise and many traps and has become increasingly popular in the social, finance, and health sectors. Maybe it’s for you. Maybe it’s not.

Chances are, it’s not.

If you are looking to force an outcome, DE is not for you.

DE might be for you if you are confused, nervous, a little excited, and curious about what it is that you’re doing, how you can make it more sustainable and useful, and interested in working with complexity, not fighting against it.

If you are not interested in learning — really, truly learning — skip the DE and try something else. DE is only good for those individuals and organizations that are serious about learning. This might mean struggling with uncertainty, honestly reflecting on past actions (including all the false-starts, non-starts, rough starts, and bad finishes) and envisioning the future and challenging what you belief (and sometimes affirming beliefs, too). A DE prompts you to do all of this and if that’s not your thing, don’t get into DE.

If you know the end of the story with your innovation before you begin, DE is not for you either.

If the status quo is your thing, DE is not.

Therapists see this all the time. They encounter people who say: “I want to change” and then witness them fight, struggle, deny, and abandon efforts to do the work to make the change happen, because it’s far easier to ask for change than it is to do it. This is OK — this struggle is part of being human. But if you are unwilling to do the work, struggle with it, and truly learn from your efforts, DE is not for you.

If you have the best idea in the world and a plan to change the world with it, DE is probably not for you. DE might get to you to re-think parts of your plan or the whole thing. It’s going to make your expected outcomes less expected and gum up the nice, simple, but wrong picture.

If practice makes perfect, DE is not for you. If practice is more of a vocation like medicine or doing meditation — a way of doing the work — then that’s a different story. For a DE practitioner, it’s not about becoming great at something, an improved version of yourself or your organization, or the best in the world. It’s about learning, growing and evolving (see above).

If you think DE is going to make you better as a person. Nope. Just as a 30-year old is not 6-times better than a 5-year old, someone who does DE is no better than they were beforehand. But they may have learned a lot and evolved as an innovator.

If you want something fast, efficient, outcomes-driven, and evidence-based from top-to-bottom don’t even think about DE.

Want to be trendy? Do DE. It’s what the cool kids are doing in evaluation and if being cool is important to you – definitely get into DE. (Unless you don’t like putting in a lot of work to become proficient areas of complexity, social and organizational behaviour, many different aspects of evaluation, and even design).

Lazy? Uncommitted? Allergic to creativity? Undisciplined? Low energy? Have a low tolerance for ambiguity? Then DE is not for you.

If you’re looking for a direct plan, a clear pathway to improvement and betterment, and quantifiable outcomes, DE is not for you.

If innovation has a specific look, feel, ROI, and outcome then you need tools and strategies that will assess all of that – which means you should not engage in DE. DE will only disappoint you. You will be exposed to many things, including possibilities you’d never considered, but they very likely won’t fit your model because, if what you are doing is truly innovative, it’s never really been tried before.

If you are changing the game while playing it, the rules that started won’t apply to what happens when you finish. You can’t start playing chess and wind up playing volleyball and still seek to measure the movements of the Rook, Bishop, or Queen. If you’re not really into game-changing – the kind that’s not about hyperbole and catchphrases — DE is not for you.

If you are short on time, commitment, and resources to bring people together, take time to pause and truly reflect, sit with uncertainty, delight in surprise, exceed your expectations, and sometimes end up disappointed, DE isn’t for you.

If strategy is a plan that you stick to no matter what, then DE is not for you.

If you’ve embraced failure as a mantra or are afraid of “failure” (which to you means not doing everything you set out to do in the manner you set out to it), then DE is certainly not for you. The only way you will fail at DE is the failure to devote attention to learning.

If you view relationships as transactions, rather than as opportunities to grow and transform, DE is most certainly not for you.

Innovation is about discovery. If you wish to work in ways that are aligned with natural development — the kind we see in our children, pets, gardens, communities, and ourselves – you might find yourself discovering a lot and DE can be a big help. If ‘discovery’ is a code-word for re-packaging what you already have or doing what you’ve always done (be honest with yourself), then DE is a big waste of time.

Can’t handle surprises? Run away from DE and use something else.

If you’re looking to just check off a box because you committed to doing that in your corporate plan, then make your life easy and give DE a pass. If you see organizations as living beings and wish to create value for others in a manner that is consistent with this perspective, then DE could be a powerful ally in that process.

DE is becoming popular, but it most certainly not everyone. Maybe not for you, either. Now, you have lots of reasons to show why you should try something else.

If you still think DE is for you after all this, let’s connect — because DE seems to suit us at Cense just fine and we can help it to suit you, too.

Photo by Loren Gu on Unsplash

design thinkingevaluation

Utility in Design-Driven Evaluation

Design-driven evaluation focuses attention on what organization’s use in their decision-making and learning to support the creation of their products, delivery of services, and the overall quality of their work. While ultimately practical, this focus on utility also introduces some difficult conversations about what organizations truly value, not just what they say.

To say something is design-driven is to imply that its emphasis is on the process of creating something of value for someone. In this case, the value is through evaluation and what it means. Value in this case is framed as utility asking: what is it for? (and for whom and under what context)?

These are the questions that designers ask of any service, product, or structure that they seek to apply their attention to. Designers might ask: “what are hiring [the thing being designed] to do?” These are simple questions that may provoke much discussion and can transform the way we approach the creation and maintenance of something moving forward.

A different take is to ask people to describe what they already do (and what they want) to frame the discussion of how to approach the design. This can lead us into a trap of the present moment. It keeps people framing their work in the context of language that supports their present identity and the conceptions (and misconceptions) associated with it, not necessarily where they want to go.

Evidence-based?

You show me an evidence-based human service organization and I’ll show you one that is lying to you (and maybe to themselves), is in deep denial, or is focused on a narrow, established scope of practice. Very few fit the last category (but they do exist), which leaves us with the unsettling reality that we are likely dealing in some level of bullshit — a deliberate misrepresentation of the facts to impress others and themselves (see Harry Frankfurt’s work on the subject (PDF).

This is not to say that these organizations don’t use evidence at all or care about its application, but that there are so many areas within that scope of work that are not based on solid or even superficial evidence that to describe something as ‘evidence-based’ is an over-reach at best, a lie at worst. The reasons for this deception are many, but among them is simply that there is not enough evidence available to inform many aspects of the work. It’s impossible to truly be evidence-based when dealing with areas of complexity, social innovation, or complex innovation.

Consider this: an organization seeks to develop an evidence-based program and spends weeks or months gathering and reviewing research. They may even collect some data on their own and synthesize the findings together to inform a recommendation based on evidence. At play is the evidence for the program, the evidence to support the design of the program (converting evidence developed in one context into actionable structures, procedures, and plans into another), the evidence to support the implementation of the designed program in a new context, and the evidence generated through evaluation of the design, delivery, and outcomes associated with the program.

That is a lot of evidence to consider. I’ve never seen a program come even close to having evidence that even reasonably fits all of these contexts, let alone strong evidence. Why? Because there are so many variables at play in the program context (e.g., design, delivery, fidelity, etc..) and the process of evidence generation itself (e.g., design, data availability, analysis, etc..).

Utility means looking at what people actually use, not just what they say they use. To illustrate, I worked with an organization that proudly claimed that they were both evidence-based and a learning organization. When I asked what evidence they used and how they learned I was told with much more modest confidence that staff typically read “one or two” research articles per month (and that was it — and this was in a highly volatile, transnational, multidisciplinary field of practice). They also said that they engaged in reflective practice by writing up case reports, which (if completed at all), usually took up to four months to prepare after a site visit to a particular site or event due to the other activities they had to do as part of the day-to-day work of the organization.

This organization did their best, but that best wasn’t anywhere enough if they truly wished to be a learning organization or evidence-based. Yet, because they insisted they were these things they also insisted on an evaluation design that fit that narrative. They had not designed their organization to be evidence-based or a real learning organization. A design-driven approach would have developed things that suited that context and perhaps pushed them a little further toward being the organization they saw themselves to be.

Another Way: Fit for Purpose

Why bring up evidence-based decision-making? The reason has much to do with defining what makes design-driven evaluation different from other forms of evaluation (even research). Design-driven evaluation is about generating evidence for use within specific contexts. It involves using design principles and strategies to uncover and understand those principles ahead of the evaluation being designed. It means designing not only the evaluation itself, but the manner in which it produces products and the means associated with decision-making based on those products.

It is about being fit-for-purpose.

Most published forms of evidence is developed independent of the context in which it is to be used. That’s the traditional model for science. We learn things in one setting (maybe a lab) and then move it out into other settings (e.g., a clinic), do more trials and then eventually develop a body of evidence that is used to generalize to other settings. This works reasonably well for problems and issues that are simple or complicated in their structure.

As a situation involves ever greater complexity, that ability to translate from one setting or context to another breaks down. This complexity might also influence what the purpose and expected outcomes are of a program within that context. For example, a community-based health promotion program may have a theory, even program logic model, and goals, but it will need to consider neighbourhood design, differences in resident needs, local history, and the availability of other programs and resources. The purpose in one neighbourhood might be to provide a backstop to a local organization that is having financial problems where in another neighbourhood it might be to provide a vehicle for local leaders to take action where there are no other alternatives.

Not Leaving Things to Chance

Developing a fit-for-purpose program is not something that should be left to chance, because chances are very likely it won’t happen. If good design improves the use, usability, and overall translation of knowledge. A look at how real evidence-based practice emerges comes down to ways in which the design — intended or not — of the knowledge, the exchange opportunities, relationships, and systems come together.

Design-driven evaluation seeks to remedy one of the fundamental problems within the evidence translation process: the poor fit of the evaluation (data, process, focus) for the implementation of its findings. It’s about not leaving it to chance with the hope that maybe someone will figure out how to use things, overcome poor usability, persist through confusion, and still make good use of an evaluation.

Is this the system we want? Or could we do better? My answer is ‘no’ to the first and ‘yes’ to the second. Design-driven evaluations can be the means to get us to that ‘yes’ because as things get more complicated and complex and the need for better data, improved decisions, and decisive action rises we need to make sure we don’t leave doing better to chance.

Photo by Jeff Sheldon on Unsplash

If you’re interested in better and doing design-driven evaluation, contact Cense via this link.

design thinking

Leadership & Design Thinking: Missed Opportunities

A recent article titled ‘The Right Way to Lead Design Thinking’ gets a lot of things wrong not because of what it says, but because of the way it says it. If we are to see better outcomes from what we create we need to begin with talking about design and design thinking differently.

I cringed when I first saw it in my LinkedIn feed. There it was: The Right Way to Lead Design Thinking. I tend to bristle when I see broad-based claims about the ‘right’ or ‘wrong’ way to do something, particularly with something so scientifically bereft as design thinking. Like others, I’ve called out much of what is discussed as design thinking for what I see as simple bullshit.

To my (pleasant) surprise, this article was based on data, not just opinion, which already puts it in a different class than most other articles on design thinking, but that doesn’t earn it a free pass. In some fairness to the authors, the title may not be theirs (it could be an editor’s choice), but what comes afterward still bears some discussion less about what they say, but how they say it and what they don’t say. This post reflects some thoughts on this work.

How we talk about what we do shapes what we know and the questions we ask and design thinking is at a state where we need to be asking bigger and better questions of it.

Right and Wrong

The most glaring critique I have of the article is the aforementioned title for many reasons. Firstly, the term ‘right’ assumes that we know above all how to do something. We could claim this if we had a body of work that systematically evaluated the outcomes associated with leadership and design thinking or research examining the process of doing design thinking. The issue is: we don’t.

There isn’t a definition of design thinking that can be held up for scrutiny to test or evaluate so how can we claim the ‘right’ way to do it? The authors link to a 2008 HBR article by Tim Brown that outlines design thinking as its reference source, however, that article provides scant concrete direction for measurement or evaluation, rather it emphasizes thinking and personality approaches to addressing design problems and a three-factor process model of how it is done in practice. These might be useful as tools, but they are not something you can derive indicators (quantitative or qualitative) to inform a comparison.

The other citation is a 2015 HBR article from Jon Kolko. Kolko is one of design’s most prolific scholars and one of the few who actively and critically writes about the thinking, doing, craft, teaching, and impact of design on the people, places, and systems around us. While his HBR article is useful in painting the complexity that besets the challenge of designers doing ‘design thinking’, it provides little to go from in developing the kind of comparative metrics that can inform a statement to say something is ‘right’ or ‘wrong’. It’s not fit for that purpose (and I suspect was never designed for that in the first place).

Both of these reference sources are useful for those looking to understand a little about what design thinking might be and how it could be used and few are more qualified to speak on such things as Tim Brown and Jon Kolko. But if we are to start taking design thinking seriously, we need to go beyond describing what it is and show what it does (and doesn’t do) and under what conditions. This is what serves as the foundation for a real science of practice.

The authors do provide a description of design thinking later in the article and anchors that description in the language of empathy, something that has its own problems.

Designers seek a deep understanding of users’ conditions, situations, and needs by endeavoring to see the world through their eyes and capture the essence of their experiences. The focus is on achieving connection, even intimacy, with users.

False Empathy?

Connecting to ideas and people

It’s fair to say that Apple and the Ford Motor Company have created a lot of products that people love (and hate) and rely on every day. They also weren’t always what people asked for. Many of those products were not designed for where people were, but they did shape where they went afterward. Empathizing with their market might not have produced the kind of breakthroughs like the iPod or automobile.

Empathy is a poor end in itself and the language used in this article treats it as such. Seeing the world through others’ eyes helps you gain perspective, maybe intimacy, but that’s all it does. Unless you are willing to take this into a systems perspective and recognize that many of our experiences are shared, collective, connected, and also disconnected then you only get one small part of the story. There is a risk that we over-emphasize the role that empathy plays in design. We can still achieve remarkable outcomes that create enormous benefit without being empathic although I think most people would agree that’s not the way we would prefer it. We risk confusing the means and ends.

One of the examples of how empathy is used in design thinking leadership takes place at a Danish hospital heart clinic where the leaders asked: “What if the patient’s time were viewed as more important than the doctor’s?” Asking this question upended the way that many health professionals saw the patient journey and led to improvements to a reduction in overnight stays. My question is: what did this produce?

What did this mean for the healthcare system as a whole? How about the professionals themselves? Are patients healthier because of the more efficient service they received? Who is deriving the benefits of this decision and who is bearing the risk and cost? What do we get from being empathic?

Failure Failings

Failure is among the most problematic of the words used in this article. Like empathy, failure is a commonly used term within popular writing on innovation and design thinking. The critique of this term in the article is less about how the authors use it explicitly, but that it is used at all. This may be as much a matter of the data itself (i.e., if you participants speak of it, therefore it is included in the dataset), however, its profile in the article is what is worth noting.

The issue is a framing problem. As the authors report from their research: “Design-thinking approaches call on employees to repeatedly experience failure”. Failure is a binary concept, which is not useful when dealing with complexity — something that Jon Kolko writes about in his article. If much of what we deal with in designing for human systems is about complexity, why are we anchoring our discussion to binary concepts such as ‘success’ and ‘failure’?

Failure exists only when we know what success looks like. If we are really being innovative, reframing the situation, getting to know our users (and discarding our preconceptions about them), how is it that we can fail? I have argued that the only thing we can steadfastly fail at in these conditions is learning. We can fail to build in mechanisms for data gathering, sensemaking, sharing, and reflecting that are associated with learning, but otherwise what we learn is valuable.

Reframing Our Models

The very fact that this article is in the Harvard Business Review suggests much about the intended audiences for this piece. I am sympathetic to the authors and my critique has focused on the details within the expression of the work, not necessarily the intent or capacity of those that created it. However, choices have consequences attached and the outcome of this article is that the framing of design thinking is in generating business improvements. Those are worthy goals, but not the only ones possible.

One of the reasons concepts like ‘failure’ apply to so much of the business literature is that the outcomes are framed in binary or simple terms. It is about improvement, efficiency, profit, and productivity. Business outcomes might also include customer satisfaction, purchase actions, or brand recognition. All of these benefit the company, not necessarily the customer, client, patient, person, or citizen.

If we were truly tackling human-centred problems, we might approach them differently and ask different questions. Terms like failure actually do apply within the business context, not because they support innovation per se, but because the outcomes are pre-set.

Leadership Roles

Bason and Austin’s research is not without merit for many reasons. Firstly, it is evidence-based. They have done the work by interviewing, synthesizing, commenting on, and publishing the research. That in itself makes it a worthy contribution to the field.

It also provides commentary and insight on some practical areas of design leadership that readers can take away right away by highlighting roles for leaders.

One of these roles is in managing the tension between divergent and convergent thought and development processes in design work. This includes managing the insecurities that many design teams may express in dealing with the design process and the volume of dis-organized content it can generate.

The exemplary leaders we observed ensured that their design-thinking project teams made the space and time for diverse new ideas to emerge and also maintained an overall sense of direction and purpose. 

Bason & Austin, HBR 2019

Another key role of the design leader is to support future thinking. By encouraging design teams to explore and test their work in the context of what could be, not just what is, leaders reframe the goals of the work and the outcomes in ways that support creativity.

Lastly, a key strength of the piece was the encouragement of multi-media forms of engagement and feedback. The authors chose to illustrate how leaders supported their teams in thinking differently about not only the design process but the products for communicating that process (and resulting products) to each other and the outside world. Too often the work of design is lost in translation because the means of communication have not been designed for the outcomes that are needed — something akin to design-driven evaluation.

Language, Learning, Outcomes

By improving how we talk about what we do we are better at framing how to ask questions about what we do and what impact it has. Doing the right thing means knowing what the wrong this is. Without evaluation, we run the risk in Design of doing what Russell Ackoff cautioned against: Doing the wrong things righter.

A read between the lines of the data — the stories and examples — that were presented in the article by Bason and Austin is the role of managing fear — fear of ‘failure’, fear from confusion, fear of not doing good work. Design, if it is anything, is optimistic in that it is about making an effort to try and solve problems, taking action, and generating something that makes a difference. Design leadership is about supporting that work and bringing it into our organizations and making it accessible.

That is an outcome worth striving for. While there are missed opportunities here, there is also much to build on and lead from.

Lead Photo by Quino Al on Unsplash

Inset Photo by R Mo on Unsplash

design thinkingevaluation

Design-driven Evaluation

Fun Translates to Impact

A greater push for inclusion of evaluation data to make decisions and support innovation is not generating value if there is little usefulness of the evaluations in the first place. A design-driven approach to evaluation is the means to transform utilization into both present and future utility.

I admit to being puzzled the first time I heard the term utilization-focused evaluation. What good is an evaluation if it isn’t utilized I thought? Why do an evaluation in the first place if not to have it inform some decisions, even if just to assess how past decisions turned out? Experience has taught me that this happens more often than I ever imagined and evaluation can be simply an exercise in ‘faux’ accountability; a checking off of a box to say that something was done.

This is why utilization-focused evaluation (U-FE) is another invaluable contribution to the field of practice by Michael Quinn Patton.

U-FE is an approach to evaluation, not a method. Its central focus is engaging the intended users in the development of the evaluation and ensuring that users are involved in decision-making about the evaluation as it moves forward. It is based on the idea (and research) that an evaluation is far more likely to be used if grounded in the expressed desires of the users and if those users are involved in the evaluation process throughout.

This approach generates a participatory activity chain that can be adapted for different purposes as we’ve seen in different forms of evaluation approaches and methods such as developmental evaluation, contribution analysis, and principles-focused approaches to evaluation.

Beyond Utilization

Design is the craft, production, and thinking associated with creating products, services, systems, or policies that have a purpose. In service of this purpose, designers will explore multiple issues associated with the ‘user’ and the ‘use’ of something — what are the needs, wants, and uses of similar products. Good designers go beyond simply asking for these things, but measuring, observing, and conducting design research ahead of the actual creation of something and not just take things at face value. They also attempt to see things beyond what is right in front of them to possible uses, strategies, and futures.

Design work is both an approach to a problem (a thinking & perceptual difference) and a set of techniques, tools, and strategies.

Utilization can run into problems when we take the present as examples of the future. Steve Jobs didn’t ask users for ‘1000 songs in their pockets‘ nor was Henry Ford told he needed to invent the automobile over giving people faster horses (even if the oft-quoted line about this was a lie). The impact of their work was being able to see possibilities and orchestrate what was needed to make these possibilities real.

Utilization of evaluation is about making what is fit better for use by taking into consideration the user’s perspective. A design-driven evaluation looks beyond this to what could be. It also considers how what we create today shapes what decisions and norms come tomorrow.

Designing for Humans

Among the false statements attributed to Henry Ford about people wanting faster cars is a more universal false statement said by innovators and students alike: “I love learning.” Many humans love the idea of learning or the promise of learning, but I would argue that very few love learning with a sense of absoluteness that the phrase above conveys. Much of our learning comes from painful, frustrating, prolonged experiences and is sometimes boring, covert, and confusing. It might be delayed in how it manifests itself with its true effects not felt long after the ‘lesson’ is taught. Learning is, however, useful.

A design-driven approach seeks to work with human qualities to design for them. For example, a utilization-focused evaluation approach might yield a process that involves regular gatherings to discuss an evaluation or reports that use a particular language, style, and layout to convey the findings. These are what the users, in this case, are asking for and what they see as making evaluation findings appealing and thus, have built into the process.

Except, what if the regular gatherings don’t involve the right people, are difficult to set up and thus ignored, or when those people show up they are distracted with other things to do (because this process adds another layer of activity into a schedule that is already full)? What if the reports that are generated are beautiful, but then sit on a shelf because the organization doesn’t have a track record of actually drawing on reports to inform decisions despite wanting such a beautiful report? (We see this with so many organizations that claim to be ‘evidence-based’ yet use evidence haphazardly, arbitrarily, or don’t actually have the time to review the evidence).

What we will get is that things have been created with the best intentions for use, but are not based on the actual behaviour of those involved. Asking this and designing for it is not just an approach, it’s a way of doing an evaluation.

Building Design into Evaluation

There are a couple of approaches to introducing design for evaluation. The first is to develop certain design skills — such as design thinking and applied creativity. This work is being done as part of the Design Loft Experience workshop held at the annual American Evaluation Association conference. The second is more substantive and that is about incorporating design methods into the evaluation process from the start.

Design thinking has become popular as a means of expressing aspects of design in ways that have been taken up by evaluators. Design thinking is often characterized by a playful approach to generating new ideas and then prototyping those ideas to find the best fit. Lego, play dough, markers, and sticky notes (as shown above) are some of the tools of the trade. Design thinking can be a powerful way to expand perspectives and generate something new.

Specific techniques, such as those taught at the AEA Design Loft, can provide valuable ways to re-imagine what an evaluation could look like and support design thinking. However, as I’ve written here, there is a lot of hype, over-selling, and general bullshit being sprouted in this realm so proceed with some caution. Evaluation can help design thinking just as much as design thinking can help evaluation.

What Design-Driven Evaluation Looks Like

A design-driven evaluation takes as its premise a few key things:

  • Holistic. Design-driven evaluation is a holistic approach to evaluation and extends the thinking about utility to everything from the consultation process, engagement strategy, instrumentation, dissemination, and discussions on use. Good design isn’t applied only to one part of the evaluation, but the entire thing from process to products to presentations.
  • Systems thinking. It also utilizes systems thinking in that it expands the conversation of evaluation use beyond the immediate stakeholders involved in consideration of other potential users and their positions within the system of influence of the program. Thus, a design-driven evaluation might ask: who else might use or benefit from this evaluation? How do they see the world? What would use mean to them?
  • Outcome and process oriented. Design-driven evaluations are directed toward an outcome (although that may be altered along the way if used in a developmental manner), but designers are agnostic to the route to the outcome. An evaluation must contain integrity in its methods, but it must also be open for adaptation as needed to ensure that the design is optimal for use. Attending to the process of design and implementation of the evaluation is an important part of this kind of evaluation.
  • Aesthetics matter. This is not about making things pretty, but it is about making things attractive. This means creating evaluations that are not ignored. This isn’t about gimmicks, tricks, or misrepresenting data, it’s considering what will draw and hold attention from the outset in form and function. One of the best ways is to create a meaningful engagement strategy for participants from the outset and involving people in the process in ways that fit with their preferences, availability, skill set, and desires rather than as tokens or simply as ‘role players.’ It’s about being creative about generating products that fit with what people actually use not just what they want or think a good evaluation is. This might mean doing a short video or producing a series of blog posts rather than writing a report. Kylie Hutchinson has a great book on innovative reporting for evaluation that can expand your thinking about how to do this.
  • Inform Evaluation with Research. Research is not just meant to support the evaluation, but to guide the evaluation itself. Design research is about looking at what environments, markets, and contexts a product or service is entering. Design-driven evaluation means doing research on the evaluation itself, not just for the evaluation.
  • Future-focused. Design-driven evaluation draws data from social trends and drivers associated with the problem, situation, and organization involved in the evaluation to not only design an evaluation that can work today but one that anticipates use needs and situations to come. Most of what constitutes use for evaluation will happen in the future, not today. By designing the entire process with that in mind, the evaluation can be set up to be used in a future context. Methods of strategic foresight can support this aspect of design research and help strategically plan for how to manage possible challenges and opportunities ahead.

Principles

Design-driven evaluation also works well with principles-focused evaluation. Good design is often grounded in key principles that drive its work. One of the most salient of these is accessibility — making what we do accessible to those who can benefit from it. This extends us to consider what it means to create things that are physically accessible to those with visual, hearing, or cognitive impairments (or, when doing things in physical spaces, making them available for those who have mobility issues).

Accessibility is also about making information understandable (avoiding unnecessary jargon (using the appropriate language for each audience), using plain language when possible, accounting for literacy levels. It’s also about designing systems of use — for inclusiveness. This means going beyond doing things like creating an executive summary for a busy CEO when that over-simplifies certain findings to designing in space within that leaders’ schedule and work environment to make the time to engage with the material in the manner that makes sense for them. This might be a different format of a document, a podcast, a short interactive video, or even a walking meeting presentation.

There are also many principles of graphic design and presentation that can be drawn on (that will be expanded on in future posts). Principles for service design, presentations, and interactive use are all available and widely discussed. What a design-driven evaluation does is consider what these might be and build them into the process. While design-driven evaluation is not necessarily a principles-focused one, they can be and are very close.

This is the first in a series of posts that will be forthcoming on design-driven evaluation. It’s a starting point and far from the end. By taking into account how we create not only our programs but their evaluation from the perspective of a designer we can change the way we think about what utilization means for evaluation and think even more about its overall experience.

public healthstrategic foresight

Futuring the Past

Flat Earth to Measles: Did We See That Coming?
In the first month of 2019 the United States saw more measles cases than it did in all of 2010. This disease of the past was once on its way to extinction (or deep hibernation) is now a current public health threat, which prompts us to think: how can our futuring better consider what we came from not just what it might lead to?

Measles was something that my parents worried about for me and my brothers more than forty years ago. Measles is one of those diseases that causes enormous problems that are both obvious and also difficult to see until they manifest themselves down the road. Encephalitis and diarrhea are two possible short-term effects, while a compromised immune system down the road is some of the longer-term effects. It’s a horrible condition, one of the most infectious diseases we know of, and also one that was once considered to be ‘eliminated’ from the United States,Canada and most of the Americas (which means existing in such small numbers as not worthy of large-scale monitoring).

In the first month of 2019 there have been more measles cases tracked than all of 2010. The causes of this are many, but largely attributable to a change in vaccination rates among the public. The fewer people who get vaccinated, the more likely the disease will find a way to take hold in the population — first of those who aren’t protected, but over time this will include some of those who are because of the ‘herd protection’ nature of how vaccination works.

Did We See That Coming?

Measles hasn’t featured prominently in any of the foresight models of the health system that I’ve seen over the course of my career. Then again, twenty-five years ago, it would have been unlikely that any foresight model of urban planning would have emphasized scooters or bicycles — old technologies — over the automobile as modes of transportation likely to shape our cities. Yet, here we are.

Today, those interested in the future of transportation are focused on autonomous cars, yet there is some speculation that the car — or at least the one we know now — will disappear altogether. Manufacturers like Ford — the company that invented the mass-market automobile — have already decided they will abandon most of their automobile production in the next few years.

The hottest TV show (or rather, streamed media production) among those under the age of 20? Friends (circa 1994).

Are you seeing a trend here?

What we are seeing is a resurgence of the past in pockets all throughout our society. The implications of this are many for those who develop or rely on futurist-oriented models to shape their work.

One might argue that a good model of the future always assumes this and therefore it isn’t a flaw of the model, but rather that, as William Gibson was quoted as suggesting: the future is here, it’s just not evenly distributed yet. The Three Horizon Framework popularized by McKinsey has this assumption built into it from the beginning. But it’s not just the model that might be problematic, but the thinking behind it.

Self-Fulfilling Futures

Foresight is useful for a number of things, but I would argue very little of that benefit is what many futurists claim. The arguments for investing in foresight is that, by thinking about what the future could bring we can better prepare ourselves for that reality in our organizations. This might mean identifying different product lines, keeping an eye out for trends that match our predictions, improving our innovation systems and “the impact of decision-making“.

Why is the case? The answer — as I’ve been told by foresight and futurist colleagues — is that by seeing what is coming we can prepare for it, much like a weather forecast allows us to dress appropriately for the day to account for the possibility of rain or snow.

The critique I have with this line of thinking is that: do we ever go back and see where our models fit and didn’t fit? Are foresight models open to evaluation? I would argue: no. There is no systematic evaluation of foresight initiatives. This is not to suggest that evaluation needs to concern itself with whether a model gets everything right — that the future turns out just as we anticipated — but whether it was actually useful.

Did we make a better decision because we saw a possible future? Did we restructure our organization to achieve something that would have been impossible had we not had the strategic foresight to guide us? These are the claims and yet we do not have evidence to support it. Such little evaluation of these models has left us open to clinging to myths and also to an absence of critical reflection on what use these models have (and also a wasted opportunity to consider what use they could have).

Yes, the case of Royal Dutch Shell and its ability to envision problems with the global oil supply chain in the late 1960’s and early 70’s through adopting a foresight approach gave them a step up on their competitors. But how many other cases of this nature are there? Where is the evidence that this approach does what it’s proponents claim it does? With foresight being adopted across industries we should have many examples of its impact, but we do not.

Layering Influence and Impact

Let’s bring it back to public health. There is enormous evidence to point to the role of tobacco use and lifetime prevalence of a litany of health problems like cancer and cardiovascular disease, yet there are still millions who use tobacco daily. Lack of retirement savings is a clear pathway to significant problems for health, wellbeing, and lifestyle down the road. The effects of human behaviour on the environment and our health have been known for decades (or millennia, depending on your perspective) to the point where we are now referring to this stage of planetary evolution as the Anthropocene (the age where humans influence the planet).

We can see things coming in various degrees of focus and yet the influence on our behaviour is not certain. Indeed, the anticipation of future consequences is only one element of a large array of factors that influence our behaviour. Psychologists, the group that studies and support the evidence for behaviour change, have shown that we are actually pretty bad at predicting what will happen, how we will react to something, and what will influence change.

Many of these factors are systemic — that is tied to the systems we are a part of. This is our team, family, organization, community, and society, and time — the various spheres outlined in Bronfenbrenner’s Social-Ecological Model. This model outlines the various ‘rings’ or spheres that influence us, including time (which encompasses them all). It’s this last ring that we often forget. This model can be useful because it showcases layers of impact and influence, including from our past.

Decision Making in the Past

By anchoring ourselves to the future and not considering our past, our models for prediction, forecasting, and foresighting are limited. We are equally limited when we use the same form of thinking (about the future) to make our models about the past. In this case, I think of Andrew Yang who recently spoke to the Freakonomics podcast and pointed out how our economic thinking is rooted in past models that we would never accept today. He’s wrong — sort of. We do accept this and it is alive and well in many of our ways of thinking about the future.

In speaking about how we’ve been through economic patterns of disruption, he points out that we are using an old fact pattern to inform what we do now as if the economy — which we invented just a few hundred years ago — has these immutable laws.


The fantasists — and they are so lazy and it makes me so angry, because people who are otherwise educated literally wave their hands and are like, “Industrial Revolution, 120 years ago. Been through it before,” and, man, if someone came into your office and pitched you an investment in a company based on a fact pattern from 120 years ago, you’d freakin’ throw them out of your office so fast.

Andrew Yang, speaking on Freakonomics

Foresight would benefit from the same kind of critical examination of itself as Yang does with the economy and our ways of thinking about it. That critical examination includes using real evidence to make decisions where we have it and where we don’t have it – we establish it.

Maybe then, we might anticipate that measles are not gone. Let’s keep our eye out on polio, too. And as for a flat earth? Don’t sail too far into the sunset as you might fall off if we don’t factor that into our models of the future.

Image Credit: “Flat Earth | Conspiracy Theory VOL.1” by Daniel Beintner is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 4.0. To view a copy of this license, visit: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0

psychology

The Developmental Psychology of Organizations

Organizations start change somewhere

Every living thing has a journey that starts somewhere and ends eventually. Our ability to see this, understand it, and apply what we know about how humans grow and develop (as individuals and organizations) is what helps us determine how this journey unfolds and where it ends up.

The psychology of individuals is a complicated affair that involves understanding a variety of matters from personal and family history, genetics, cultural context, education, and social situating. While all of these contribute to who we are as people, the degree of influence and mix is different from person to person. It means that we are all a product of a collection of forces that combine together in various ways that make understanding how we change a challenge because of this holistic complexity.

For example, some of us might have behaviours and preferences associated with a certain personality type (extroverted and introverted) and find that quality to be relatively stable across the lifespan. While there are times we might exhibit qualities of another type, those are more situational than stable. For those who are more of an ambivert, identification with a particular preference might be more challenging. Whatever investment you place in this kind of personality assessment, what is important is that the stability and consistency of certain characteristics are what largely shapes our identity to others (and ourselves). It’s what makes us ‘us’.

From Individuals to Organizations

It has been argued that organizations exhibit much of the same kind of characteristic habits on their own while providing an aggregation of the characteristics of those within them and leading them to various degrees. Personality theory has been applied to organizational behaviour as a means of understanding how it is that certain actions, activities, habits, and patterns form from within organizations and their implications. This involves taking ideas developed for individuals and applying them to groups and the implications of this are considerable.

If we are to consider organizations similar to humans seriously, it can have significant implications for the way in which we engage in organizational change efforts. Much of the research on organizational change is tied to the development and implementation of a strategy. Strategy, in most conventional applications, is an expression of intent manifest through specific choices of focus and action. This approach rests largely on a cognitive rational model of change (pdf) where information (e.g., data, ‘facts’, perceptions, beliefs, and opinion) guides an assessment of the situation that forms the basis for a plan of action. The idea is that we see and learn things and plan and act according to that knowledge.

Most individual behaviour change models are founded on this approach that has thinking preceding action in a relatively rational, logical manner based on an objective assessment of the facts and evidence (with some emotional contributions here and there to make life interesting). So if we tie organizational change to the similar kind of mechanisms and models that we use to understand individuals, should we not apply similar modes of change facilitation? We do — but its how we do it that might be the problem.

Change Theory to Change Reality

One of the most vexing (and little discussed) issues for behavioural scientists is that the application of the cognitive rational model to personal, organizational, and social change has a rather unimpressive track record. A look at how people change finds that relatively little change comes from rationally reviewing a threat or opportunity and planning out a strategy (nevermind executing the planned strategy as envisioned). Even when the effects are modest, factors such as the match between the person, technique or intervention approach, and the problem being addressed continues to mediate the outcomes.

What happens when our theories and our practices don’t really work? Or at least don’t work as well as we think they do?

The answer — using the very argument that we are looking to disprove — is that we will address the matter as many individuals might: disagreement, resistance, and denial.

The field of organizational decision-making and innovation is littered with case studies that show how, in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, organizations (like many individuals) resist change. Whether it was the speed at which those on the Titanic accepted the fact that their ship would sink after hitting the iceberg (nevermind the perception that the ship was invulnerable, to begin with) or companies who persist with a strategy that doesn’t match with changing times (e.g., Kodak and it’s photographic film business, Sears and its retail model), the inability to see, unwillingness to perceive or accept changing situations has led to major problems.

These problems are a matter of failing to change or adapt. To quote from The Leopard:

If want things to stay as they are, things will have to change

Change is something we need to do even if that is simply to maintain the status quo.

Person-Centred Organizational Change

Erik Eriksen, the Austrian-American psychoanalyst whose work focused on identity formation and development, was among the few to challenge the belief that people’s essential character was immutable and resistant to change. (The dominant view was that thinking and behaviour could change, but not ‘how one was’ as a person). He did, however, acknowledge that our ability to change who we are was not easy and takes a lifetime. This flies in the face of the dominant thinking in Western societies that we can make dramatic changes in an instant.

While talk-shows and popular self-books are filled with stories of dramatic transformation and inspiration about how you can change everything in an instant, the truth is that these cases are outliers (and often exaggerations) or misrepresentations. Much like the artist who ‘breaks out’ and becomes an ‘overnight sensation’ the journey to stardom is usually a long one that follows a Pareto distribution (that is a long, slow climb over time followed by very quick punctuation at the end). What is misread into these success stories is that the rapid change is a factor of a long, protracted build-up.

While there are some things that do follow this pattern much change is also linear and progressive. We see this in the work of another Ericsson: Anders Ericsson. His work is widely cited (and mis-cited) as being behind the ‘10,000 Hour Rule’ that suggests that expertise — a change from an unskilled novice to a skilled expert — is developed over that much time of practice. While the time itself is important, what is often missed in the citation of this work is that the key is on deliberative practice (pdf), which makes all the difference.

If we extrapolate from the work of both Eriksen/Ericsson’s we might develop a model of behaviour change that looks quite different than we have at present. Instead of trying 5-year plans, strategic goals, and inspirational visions of the future, we might be better off delving into an organization’s past, it’s formation, it’s core beliefs and personality, and spend more time looking at what it is already doing than what it seeks to do.

Developmental Organizations

We might then find what it seeks to deliberate on day-in-and-out and emphasize the ways in which to amplify the feedback that helps people learn deliberately and consistently. We might take these lessons — much like those small, tiny adjustments that expert violinists, athletes, and surgeons make to hone their craft — and make them visible and build on them. We would look upon organizations as developing organizations using approaches that fit with them developmentally (e.g., developmental evaluation). We would treat organizations like we would people.

Which is kind of funny because organizations are made of people. That’s some change.

Photo by Stanislav Kondratiev on Unsplash

evaluationsocial systems

Baby, It’s Cold Outside (and Other Evaluation Lessons)

Competing desires or imposing demands?

The recent decision by many radio stations to remove the song “Baby, It’s Cold Outside” from their rotation this holiday season provides lessons on culture, time, perspective, and ethics beyond the musical score for those interested in evaluation. The implications of these lessons extend far beyond any wintery musical playlist. 

As the holiday season approaches, the airwaves, content streams, and in-store music playlists get filled with their annual turn toward songs of Christmas, the New Year, Hanukkah, and the romance of cozy nights inside and snowfall. One of those songs has recently been given the ‘bah humbug’ treatment and voluntarily removed from playlists, initiating a fresh round of debates (which have been around for years) about the song and its place within pop culture art. The song, “Baby, It’s Cold Outside” was written in 1944 and has been performed and recorded by dozens of duets ever since. 

It’s not hard for anyone sensitive to gender relations to find some problematic issues with the song and the defense of it on the surface, but it’s once we get beneath that surface that the arguments become more interesting and complicated. 

One Song, Many Meanings

One of these arguments has come from jazz vocalist Sophie Millman, whose take on the song on the CBC morning radio show Metro Morning was that the lyrics are actually about competing desires within the times, not a work about predatory advances.

Others, like feminist author Cammila Collar, have gone so far to describe the opposition to the song as ‘slut shaming‘. 

Despite those points (and acknowledging some of them), others suggest that the manipulative nature of the dialogue attributed to the male singer is a problem no matter what year the song was written. For some, the idea that this was just harmless banter overlooks the enormous power imbalance between genders then and now when men could impose demands on women with fewer implications. 

Lacking a certain Delorean to go back in time to fully understand the intent and context of the song when it was written and released, I came to appreciate that this is a great example of some of the many challenges that evaluators encounter in their work. Is “Baby, It’s Cold Outside” good or bad for us? Like with many situations evaluators encounter: it depends (and depends on what questions we ask). 

Take (and Use) the Fork

Yogi Berra famously suggested (or didn’t) that “when you come across a fork in the road, take it.” For evaluators, we often have to take the fork in our work and the case of this song provides us with a means to consider why.

A close read of the lyrics and a cursory knowledge of the social context of the 1940s suggests that the arguments put forth by Sophie Millman and Cammila Collar have some merit and at least warrant plausible consideration. This might just be a period piece highlighting playful, slightly romantic banter between a man and woman on a cold winter night. 

At the same time, what we can say with much more certainty is that the song agitates many people now. Lydia Liza and Josiah Lemanski revised the lyrics to create a modern, consensual take on the song, which has a feel that is far more in keeping with the times. This doesn’t negate the original intent and interpretation of the lyrics, rather it places the song in the current context (not a historical one) and that is important from an evaluative standpoint.

If the intent of the song is to delight and entertain then what once worked well now might not. In evaluation terms, we might say the original merit of the song may hold based on historical context, its worth has changed considerably within the current context.

We may, as Berra might have said, have to take the fork and accept two very different understandings within the same context. We can do this by asking some specific questions. 

Understanding Contexts

Evaluators typically ask of programs (at least) three questions: What is going on? What’s new? and What does it mean? In the case of Baby, It’s Cold Outside, we can see that the context has shifted over the years, meaning that no matter how benign the original intent, the potential for misinterpretation or re-visioning of the intent in light of current times is worth considering.

What is going on is that we are seeing a lot of discussion about the subject matter of a song and what it means in our modern society. This issue is an attractor for a bigger discussion of historical treatment, inequalities, and the language and lived experience of gender.

The fact that the song is still being re-recorded and re-imagined by artists illustrates the tension between a historical version and a modern interpretation. It hasn’t disappeared and it may be more known now than ever given the press it receives.

What’s new is that society is far more aware of the scope and implications of gender-based discrimination, violence, and misogyny in our world than before. It’s hard to look at many historical works of art or expression without referencing the current situation in the world. 

When we ask about what it means, that’s a different story. The myriad versions of the song are out there on records, CD’s, and through a variety of streaming sources. While it might not be included in a few major outlets, it is still available. It is also possible to be a feminist and challenge gender-based violence and discrimination and love or leave the song. 

The two perspectives may not be aligned explicitly, but they can be with a larger, higher-level purpose of seeking empowerment and respect for women. It is this context of tension that we can best understand where works like this live. 

This is the tension in which many evaluations live when dealing with human services and systems. There are many contexts and we can see competing visions and accept them both, yet still work to create a greater understanding of a program, service, or product. Like technology, evaluations aren’t good or bad, but nor are they neutral. 

Image credit MGM/YouTube via CBC.ca

Note: The writing article happened to coincide with the anniversary of the horrific murder of 14 women at L’Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal. It shows that, no matter how we interpret works of art, we all need to be concerned with misogyny and gender-based violence. It’s not going away.